Friday, April 22, 2016


We observe from the media, that since Iran is not willing to freeze its production due to its effort to recovery its financial state budget following the lifting of Western embargo sanctions, causing failure in the Daha Conference on Sunday April 17, 2006  in reaching an agreement or a Deal  to freeze and  stablize the output of Oil Production  by Opec and Non - Opec who gathered in the Daha Conference after Saudi Arabia demanded Iran to join in such freezing of oil production. As we understand Opec's accumulated production contributes 40% of the Oil Production in the Market Global Share.
  • There were 18 Oil Nations including Russia a Non - Opec delegate, who participated in the Daha Conference at Qatari capital of Doha which was previously expected to be able to  reach a deal,  since every stack holders in the Global Oil  business worldwide  has really  suffered  losses  due to the Oil  Price collapse since June 2014.  From the media we understand that there was a fierce debate relating to the wording of communique - including between Saudia Arabia and Russia. Thus the delagates and the miniters had announced that "No Deal  Had Been Reached."
As an Independent Business Lawyer from the Legal Aspects, the Writer of this AGUNGSS Business Lawyer Note Blog  has the impression that  Saudi Arabia was taking the lead in emphazising that Iran as the Opec Member had to agree to freeze its oil Output, since it appears that  Teheran was absent in the talks in such Daha Conference.  

One interesting view from  the legal aspects  in  reaching an agreement or a deal, we observe that since Iran is just only 1(one) member or participant in the Daha Conference who was absent in the talks,  out of the 18 (eithgteen)  Delegates,   we can say that the Deal to Freeze could actually be easily reached,   since only 1(one) delegate was absent,  which leaves the other 17 (seventeen) Delegates to be the  majority vote in the conference and can  therefore easily strike  a Deal to freeze their oil out put production.  As we understand from observes oil analyst  they say  that it will take a rather long periodic of time for Iran to build its Oil infrustructure,  before it could produce and tab its Oil Market Share,  which will be rangging from 500 barrels/per day up to 3 Million barrels per day. 

  • However, from the Geopolitical Perspective, we understand that Saudi Arab and Iran are confronting each other in the Middle East Syria Crisis war, causing Saudi Arab as the Major Oil Producers in the Arab Regional Countries who assist Yemen, and other Middle East Countries to have a tough strong hold in the Vote to demand   Iran to join in the freeze as a condition for  Saudi Arab  to agree in freezing its oil output production.              
This development of course will be really negative signal to the Global Oil Industries causing fears that major oil producers will not end their  battle for the market share, particularly after a threat from Saudi Arab to raise its oil output steeply if "No Freeze Deal of the Oil Output Production cannot be reached". Well  it is really a disaster if supply and demand  of oil is not being the real elemen causing the fluctuation of the Oil Prices,  but is rather more stronger affected and pressured by the Oil War Geopolitical Elemen  as the Major Factor causing real suffer and major losses to other stackholders within the Oil Business Globally, including affecting the Indonesian Economy,  not to mention the internal political tug of war battle  within the Political Elit surrounding the Oil Business Pragmatical approach in Indonesia,  particularly if "Huge Potential of Oil and Gas Discover",  has been predicted to be discovered as shown in  the Masela Block - Paradox Pros and Cons. 

Jakarta, 22 April 2016
Agung Supomo Suleiman
Independent Business Lawyer who is concerned on the Oil Gas and Mining Energy Industries in Indonesia 

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